Roki Sasaki free company: Why Dodgers are favorites for Japanese ace, and which groups could also be within the operating too

Over the weekend, the Chiba Lotte Marines of Japan’s Nippon Skilled Baseball league introduced their intention to publish right-hander Roki Sasaki for MLB consideration. (The posting system is basically MLB’s switch portal with NPB and South Korea’s KBO.) Sasaki, 23, has been a world sensation since he threw a 19-strikeout excellent recreation through the 2022 season. It is truthful to explain him as probably the most gifted pitcher not already employed by one MLB group or one other.

As soon as Sasaki is posted, it stands to cause that each group will contact base together with his camp. His incomes potential shall be drastically suppressed by his classification as an novice free agent (resulting from his age and lack of service time). MLB groups will be capable of provide him solely as a lot as they’ve left of their worldwide novice signing bonus swimming pools. Solely two groups, the Dodgers and the Orioles, have greater than $2 million of their 2024 coffers, in keeping with the Related Press.

There’s a potential catch right here. The present worldwide novice signing interval ends on Dec. 15, with a recent cycle opening a month later. If Sasaki waits till Jan. 15 to signal, when each group has their full 2025 pool out there, he’ll markedly enhance his incomes potential. In fact, if Sasaki cared solely concerning the backside line, he would’ve waited till he was not categorized as an novice. At that time, Sasaki would’ve been capable of signal a contract just like the $325 million pact inked final winter by countryman and fellow right-hander Yoshinobu Yamamoto. 

Sasaki’s willingness to forgo that situation suggests he is being pushed by different elements, a lot the best way Shohei Ohtani was when he first got here to the US. And whereas that would appear to open up Sasaki’s listing of potential suitors, it does not eradicate the assumption that one group is the favourite to land him: the Los Angeles Dodgers.

Rōki Sasaki, 99mph Fastball and 91mph Splitter, Overlay. pic.twitter.com/kxw6dTI9TT

— Rob Friedman (@PitchingNinja) Might 24, 2024

Certainly, there are a number of apparent causes to suppose the Dodgers would possibly have already got secured the interior lane within the Sasaki race. That begins with the actual fact they’ve probably the most cash to supply him throughout this present signing bonus cycle. Moreover, the Dodgers are the reigning World Collection champions and are broadly seen inside the trade because the mannequin group in each participant analysis and improvement. 

In different phrases, the Dodgers are the choose for Sasaki if he desires to receives a commission as a lot as he can (this cycle anyway); win a hoop; and/or turn into the perfect model of himself. On high of all that, the Dodgers make use of Ohtani and Yamamoto, two of Sasaki’s Workforce Japan teammates, and have proven a willingness so as to add the mandatory assist workers. (Be it Ippei Mizuhara, Ohtani’s now-disgraced ex-interpreter, or Yamamoto’s biomechanics guru Osamu Yada.) 

Solely Sasaki is aware of how a lot any of these things issues, if in any respect. Patch all of it collectively, although, and the Dodgers appear to cowl each potential base in a manner that makes them the combination favourite.

Nonetheless, for the sake of constructing issues fascinating, we figured it could be worthwhile to spotlight a number of different groups who would appear to have higher than even odds at wooing Sasaki over the approaching weeks. Allow us to make the temporary case for these three groups, offered her in no explicit order:

1. Baltimore Orioles: The opposite group with greater than $2 million to spend this cycle. The O’s have a formidable younger core and an apparent want for extra influence arms. Baltimore can also be, accurately, recognized for its participant improvement acumen.
2. New York Yankees: Along with having the third-most cash to supply this cycle, the Yankees have one apparent issue working of their favor: they’re the Yankees. Few different franchises could make the status and world model worth.
3. San Diego Padres: This one comes with a caveat: the Padres have simply over $2,000 remaining on this cycle’s pool, making them a non-factor until this pushes into January. Ought to that come to fruition, properly, you may by no means low cost A.J. Preller’s willingness to make a daring transfer — on this occasion, maybe discovering a manner so as to add further bonus pool cash by way of trades. It might or could not assist that San Diego employs Yu Darvish, one other of Sasaki’s Workforce Japan teammates.