Pete Alonso free company: 4 the explanation why former Mets slugger might not receives a commission as a lot as you assume

Since Day 1 of his rookie yr in 2019, erstwhile New York Mets first baseman Pete Alonso has been one of the crucial productive energy hitters within the recreation. Solely Aaron Decide has hit extra dwelling runs since 2019 and solely Marcus Semien has performed extra video games. Alonso may be very productive and really sturdy. He is additionally a free agent for the primary time in his profession.

“I like this staff. I like this group. This fan base has handled not simply myself, however my household so, so properly. Proper now, I am simply considering of the group,” Alonso stated after the Mets had been eradicated within the NLCS (by way of MLB.com). “We’ll see what occurs (in free company). We’ll cross that bridge after we get there. However I like New York. I like this staff. I like enjoying in Queens. This group is actually particular, and the recollections that we have created collectively are simply, wow. This is the reason we play baseball.”

Alonso turns 30 in December and he is coming off a 2024 season that noticed him hit .240/.329/.459 with 34 dwelling runs, and go to his third consecutive All-Star Sport. Our R.J. Anderson ranked him because the tenth-best free agent out there this offseason, and the perfect out there first baseman. Six years into his profession, Alonso has averaged 43 homers and three.8 WAR per 162 video games.

That every one stated, there are causes to imagine Alonso won’t get a large long-term contract this offseason. To make certain, he might be paid handsomely, but when Alonso and agent Scott Boras wish to reset the first-base market, they’re more likely to be upset. Listed here are 4 causes Alonso might get much less this offseason than the primary six years of his profession might lead you to imagine.

1. He is coming off his worst season

These 34 dwelling runs Alonso hit in 2024? That is his lowest complete in a 162-game season, as is his .459 slugging share. Previous to 2024, Alonso had by no means slugged below .504 in a 162-game season, so it is not a small decline in slugging capacity. He is a slugging first baseman. That is how Alonso makes his cash and offers worth to his staff, and his slugging slipped.

We will ignore 2020 as a result of it was a weird, shortened season, and I do not maintain anybody’s efficiency that yr towards them. Listed here are Alonso’s contact high quality numbers within the 5 162-game seasons of his profession:

Statcast’s anticipating slugging share (xSLG) is predicated on exit velocity and launch angle, and it tells us that Alonso’s profession low dwelling run complete was not a fluke. The contact he made in 2024 was much less conducive to dwelling runs. His strikeout and ground-ball charges had been means up too, and strikeouts and grounders do not go for dwelling runs. There are crimson flags with Alonso’s core abilities.

Groups are higher at projecting future efficiency and valuing future efficiency over previous efficiency than ever, although previous efficiency does inform their future projections to some extent. Analytical fashions will say Alonso will play his subsequent contract in his 30s and he is already exhibiting indicators of slipping from a top-tier energy hitter to merely an excellent one. That can all be baked into the cake when contract affords are despatched his means.

2. He is a proper/proper first baseman

That means right-handed hitting and right-handed throwing, which is a profile with a less-than-kind growing old curve. As a hitter, you are on the sunshine aspect of the platoon, and as a defender, it’s a must to flip to begin the 3-6-3 double play quite than with the ability to throw throughout your physique. Within the Growth Period (since 1961), solely 16 proper/proper first base/DH guys amassed even 10 WAR after their thirtieth birthday.

Historical past shouldn’t be on Alonso’s aspect. Amongst proper/proper gamers, similarity scores have guys like Cecil Fielder and Richie Sexson as most much like Alonso by means of the age-29 season, and people two had been accomplished as elite energy hitters by time they had been 32. Mark McGwire can also be similar to Alonso by means of age 29, although he admitted to utilizing performance-enhancing medicine, so his 30s had been tainted and do not assist us perceive what’s coming for Alonso. Regardless, the proper/proper first base/DH profile is tough. These guys are likely to age poorly.

3. First basemen do not receives a commission massive anymore

It has been greater than 10 years since a primary baseman signed a $200 million contract. Not since Miguel Cabrera’s 10-year, $292 million extension with the Tigers in 2014. Solely 4 first basemen have gotten even $130 million for the reason that Orioles gave Chris Davis seven years and $161 million in January 2016:

Goldschmidt and Olson signed extensions earlier than hitting free company and Olson signed his contract two weeks after his twenty eighth birthday. Alonso turns 30 subsequent month. Goldschmidt signed his deal quickly after turning 31 and, at worst, he was a comparable participant to Alonso by means of age 29. Goldschmidt actually was higher although — 34.4 WAR vs. 19.8 WAR by means of age 29 — as a result of he was was a far superior defender and baserunner.

Alonso is superb however he isn’t Freeman. Freddie’s going to Corridor of Fame and that was true earlier than he had a traditionally nice World Sequence final month. The Hosmer deal was doomed from the beginning. He by no means hit for the sort of energy wanted to justify that contract, and the Padres regretted it from Day 1. Level is, these are the most important first-base contracts since 2016. These guys don’t receives a commission like they did as soon as upon a time. The market is unkind to even the best gamers on the place.

4. Few massive spenders want a primary baseman (or DH)

Give it some thought. The Dodgers want neither a primary baseman (Freeman) nor a DH (Shohei Ohtani). The Phillies are set too (Bryce Harper and Kyle Schwarber), as are the Braves (Olson and Marcell Ozuna). The Yankees have a DH (Giancarlo Stanton) however not a primary baseman, and Juan Soto might be their precedence. The Crimson Sox are set at first base (Triston Casas) and DH (Rafael Devers, Masataka Yoshida, and many others.). If the Blue Jays spend massive on a primary baseman, it will be to retain Vladimir Guerrero Jr.

With the caveat that stunning groups enter the combination each offseason, Alonso’s market within the early days of the offseason seems to incorporate the Astros, the Mets, possibly the Giants, possibly the Mariners, and that is most likely it? Groups just like the Rangers and Twins (and Diamondbacks) might make sense, although they’re caught up within the Diamond Sports activities Group chapter, and possibly will not enhance payroll in a means that’s wanted to afford Alonso. Alonso cannot transfer to a brand new place on the sphere both. He’s what he’s, and it limits his market.

Moreover, there may be one other fairly good free-agent first baseman out there this offseason: Christian Walker. Walker’s offensive manufacturing the previous few years is similar to Alonso’s and he is a significantly better defender (he may be the perfect defensive first baseman within the recreation). Walker turns 34 in March, so he is a number of years older than Alonso, which simply means the contract affords might be smaller. Groups might view Walker on a 2-3 yr deal as rather more fascinating than Alonso on no matter Boras desires.

Once more, the market shifts all through the winter and issues can (and can change) over the following few weeks, however proper now, there do not seem like many massive spenders out there for a primary baseman. And chances are high a kind of groups goes to signal Walker too, taking a possible touchdown spot away from Alonso. Alonso’s a very good participant who has had success in a giant market. On the similar time, market forces counsel his free company may be chilly, and never reward him with a giant deal.